Sunday, September 30, 2007
The end is nigh for Google
A new study of search engine activity shows that Google could be facing a dim future. The research showed that even though Google tops the search popularity stakes, well ahead of Yahoo or Microsoft, fewer people actually click on the results.
For Google, less than two thirds of people click on the results for a search term. However, for Yahoo 75% of people click on one or more of the search results provided. What this clearly shows is that the quality of the results provided by Google is less well targeted at people's actual requirements than Yahoo. And that spells potential disaster for Google.
Ten years ago, Yahoo dominated the search sector. However, it was a human edited directory and couldn't keep pace with the rapidly expanding world wide web. A year later, along came Google with its automated system that meant it was able to index everything, providing people with more search options.
Internet users switched to Google because they were more likely to find what they were looking for. This was the motivating reason for people to change their behaviour and move away from Yahoo.
Now though, this new research shows clearly that people are more likely to find what they are looking for at Yahoo, rather than Google. This signals a potential tipping point for Google. Their experts, such as Matt Cutts, argue that it is rather complex and that the descriptions provided by Yahoo are less informative, so people need to click more often to find out if the result is what they want.
This is another signal for the beginning of the end for Google. It reflects the kind of institutional arrogance that accompanies huge success. Google is focusing on the data, not the people. If people needed to click to see if the search results are appropriate they could well discover the pages are not what they wanted. This would lead - as it did in the early days of Google - for people to use Yahoo less.
But, Yahoo is gaining ground. After a period in the doldrums for much of this year, people are switching to Yahoo in much larger numbers; it is gaining market share from Google. Equally, Yahoo is closing the gap on Google in terms of customer service measures.
These are all indications of the fact that the human response to Yahoo is positive. This would not be the case if it were, as Google argues, a statistical quirk. They suggest that more people click through on Yahoo results because of poorer snippet descriptions. If that were the case the human response would be less successful for Yahoo since some of the results would inevitably be wrong.
Google started out in life and achieved huge success because it focused on what people wanted - better search. Now it seems it is focusing less on the human requirements and more on itself. That spells the end for any business. Yahoo appears to be turning itself around and focusing on what we, the human reader, wants from search. As ever, focusing on what people want is the most successful business strategy.
This is not the first article I've written that has said "Bye bye Google"; perhaps our love affair with this company is beginning to fade - we are having our "seven year itch" with it. Besides which, one day search engines won't exist - we will have other more intelligent ways of finding what we want.
Labels: future
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Readers' Comments:
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September 30, 2007 9:57 AM 
Mark Lee said…
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September 30, 2007 9:57 AM Wayne Smallman said…
"Ten years ago, Yahoo dominated the search sector. However, it was a human edited directory and couldn't keep pace with the rapidly expanding world wide web."
And I'm pretty sure people were saying 'the end is nigh' for Yahoo!, too.
The fact is (I stress the use of the word: "fact") Google really aren't going anywhere, and neither are Yahoo! for that matter.
They're both very deeply entrenched and moving in slightly different directions to each other.
Also — and it's an artifact of all statistics — most studies can usually only make projections based on some very narrow topics, often looking forward in painfully straight lines.
If you look at what both Google and Yahoo! are up to recently, neither of them are moving in straight lines, painful or otherwise...
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September 30, 2007 12:33 PM Graham Jones said…
Thanks Mark for your comment. Yes the data is US based, so it may well be different for the UK. However, I don't think people are that different anywhere in the world. If a search engine isn't giving anyone what they seek, they will try alternatives.
Wayne, thanks too and I agree. It is a complex issue, but I'm convinced that the end is nigh for any company that stops focusing on its human customers. Technology companies frequently do this and the world is littered with dead companies who failed to focus on people, instead concentrating on the technology. It's Google's comments on this issue that signal the start of something potentially worrying. They are debating the statistics, rather then the human issue of people getting what they want from search. That's what made Google great in the first place, so they clearly know what to do.
Fascinating as always Graham. Thanks for this. Having just checked the differences in the results for searches on my name I do hope that the switch to Yahoo is many years away. They currently seem to favour links from blogs I haven't updated for months! Google is much more current and accurate. I note that the research you quote is US centric. Do you think the results are likely to be replicated in the UK?