The celebrity Tweeter, Amanda Holden, was "told off" last night by her producers at ITV for using her mobile during Britain's Got Talent this week to send tweets. Apparently she was seen on camera sending her little messages during the live show. How do we know she was told off? She said so in one of her tweets during a commercial break.

People who do not use Twitter will probably think she is one of a clutch of celebrities who use this micro-blogging service for promotion, self aggrandisement, ego boosting or because of personal insecurities. Whilst that may be possible, a new study suggests it is less likely than you might think.

According to an historical study going back to the 18th Century, researchers at Cornell University have discovered that diary entries kept by people over the past 300 years are remarkably similar to tweets. Far from tweeting being new, it seems we have been doing it for centuries. It's just that now we can do it "real time". Historians explain the findings by saying that notebooks in the past were small, limiting the extent to which people could write. They could not produce extensive notes because of the physical restrictions, so they just jotted down short items about their daily activities. The experts on diary writing also say that diaries were indeed public documents - much like Tweets. Diaries were written in the 18th and 19th Centuries to share with others; they were not intended to be kept private.

It all rather suggests that Tweets fulfil an essential requirement. It implies that Tweeting is nothing new - it appears it is something we have always done.

So, rather than be critical of Amanda Holden and those other celebrity Tweeters, perhaps the real question to ask is why they are being so 18th Century....?

I have a thought on this, for what it's worth. There is some evidence that sleep is an essential human requirement during which much brain activity occurs that appears to "sort out" all of our daily inputs. Some creatures with smaller brains do not sleep, as we know it. Our larger brains and - perhaps - consciousness itself means that sleep has a neurological function to it. Could it be too, that writing things down - jotting notes in the past, or writing Tweets today - is part of that same process. It is a function that helps our brains organise things more effectively. Otherwise, all those thoughts and inputs just float around waiting to be organised. It's possible that Twitter is performing a significant function for our brains.

And, if you don't use Twitter, that may mean that Amanda Holden has a better organised brain than you. Now, there's a thought.

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Politicians need to take note of Twitter if they want to succeed in the forthcoming General Election in the UK. A new service called "Tweetminster" is analysing all the political tweets and using that information to predict the result of the election. At the moment it is suggesting that the Labour Party will get the largest number of seats, but will fall short of an overall majority, leading to a hung Parliament. But can the information be trusted or is it just fun?

Research conducted by Hewlett Packard would suggest that the Tweetminster results are entirely accurate. In an analysis of over 3 million tweets, Dr Bernardo Huberman has been able to show that Twitter can accurately predict the box office receipts of new movies. His research (PDF) looked at 24 new cinema releases and analysed the tweets about those films. The study then predicted the box office income simply from the number, frequency and content of those Twitter messages. Then the researchers compared their findings to the published box office receipts. As you can see from the graph (right) taken from the study, the lines are almost identical. The accuracy of the prediction is remarkable.

What this research suggests is that the "Twittersphere" is entirely representative of the "real world". It shows that the results suggested by Tweetminster are highly likely to be correct.

The HP study also means that you can rely on Twitter searches to give you a realistic snapshot of what's going on in your marketplace. By using Twitter Search you can get an idea of the frequency, recency and the kind of tweets on any subject. These are the factors which will enable you to predict the potential for any product or service in your industry.

In other words, Twitter is no longer a plaything, a device for updating your friends on which pub you are in. This study proves that it is a serious market research tool. And on the political front it suggests you are in for months of turmoil and indecision as we are almost certain to get a hung Parliament - which in itself can't be good for business. That means that Twitter could be even more important in predicting fluctuations in your marketplace that will be inevitable in times of political uncertainty. Effectively, if you are not using Twitter to conduct market research in the coming months, your business could seriously suffer.

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Throughout the world there are people sitting right at this moment, scratching their heads and wondering "Should I use Twitter?". Every day people ponder over joining up with Twitter; yet each day people stop using Twitter as well. There is a never ending revolving door of people joining and then leaving (or at least leaving their accounts dormant). Importantly, though, there is a real pressure for business owners to join. And that in itself could be a problem.

For instance, research shows that in the past year the most profitable companies have been those who have engaged heavily with social media. In particular, the firms like Starbucks and Dell, who have used Twitter enormously, are the ones that have seen the best financial improvement. There appears to be a link between business results and use of social media. Cash-strapped chief executives and business owners must be looking at this success and asking "if they can do it, why can't we?".

Similarly, family members who engage with Twitter are likely to be enthusiasts for the network, trying to get the rest of the family to join up so they can all have fun together online, share images at TwitPic and keep up-to-date with what each other has been doing. It all sounds like a good idea and so brothers, sisters, cousins, uncles and aunts, all think "Mmmm, this might be a good idea".

But then they get online and rather like the CEO facing Twitter for the first time they ask "What on Earth is this all about?". Some people investigate and work out what they can do. Others download useful booklets on Twitter, and some struggle on and just hope they can "get it". But should you struggle on? Should you do all that research and find out how to use Twitter? Should you go to a workshop on Twitter?

Possibly; but possibly not. Some people are just not made for Twitter. They are not the kind of people who will be able to get on with Twitter, no matter how valuable they can see it might be from a logical perspective. If you have struggled with Twitter, you might be one of the people it's not aimed at - so stop using it...! Otherwise you will waste your time trying to understand it, work with it and use it. That will lead to frustration, even stress. And that will affect your business - and your relationships.

Give up Twitter if you are an Introvert
Twitter is a social environment. It's full of people who love being with other people. True there are probably more than a few narcissists there as well, but on the whole it is where people who love talking to other people congregate. Introverted individuals prefer solitary occupation and, importantly, they tend to be single-focus people. In other words they are less able to multi-task than extroverts. Twitter is a multi-tasker's dream - you have Twitter open in one window, while you busy yourself in another, every now and then looking at something your Followers are chatting about. Indeed, you have to use Twitter whilst doing something else, otherwise you'd probably never get any work done. As a result, Twitter is geared much more to the extrovert than the introvert.

Give up Twitter if you are a Perfectionist
If you dot the i's and cross the t's, Twitter is not for you either. You'll spend too long crafting Tweets and replies, when the "instant" conversational tone of Twitter doesn't work well with that kind of approach. You'll also get immensely frustrated with the poor spelling, the inaccuracies and the bad grammar. But spoken language is also grammatically poor when compared with written language - it's just that we don't see it. On screen, that spoken style so dominant on Twitter is exposed, warts and all. If you are a perfectionist, or someone who likes things "done right", then Twitter will frustrate and annoy you considerably.

Give up Twitter if you are Creative
Creative people are generally poor at time management. Studies show that the people who are good at managing time tend to be less creative than people who are pretty rubbish at time management. Twitter can eat into your plans easily. As you get hooked into a conversation, as you discover interesting things to read and as you find more fascinating people to Follow, you can spend hours and hours just Twittering away. If you are not a creative type you will be able to more easily manage these kinds of distraction which Twitter provides. But if you are a creative individual, there's a chance you'll while away the hours and not get any work done..!

So who should be using Twitter then? Well if we take away the introverts, the perfectionists and the creatives we are left with a careless, unimaginative, extrovert...! And do you really want to spend your time with lots of them...?

Having said this, you might not need to give up Twitter after all. If you are an Introvert you can listen - just read the Tweets that interest you and follow the links, but don't join in. In other words, do the same as you do down the pub - eavesdrop. If you are a Perfectionist you can get your own Tweets right, of course, but if you learn the Twitter lingo, you'll discover that the spelling isn't incorrect, it's just a new language you need to learn. And if you are a Creative person why not come up with an idea for earning your living via Twitter? Your creative brain could work that out and you'd then be able to while away those unplanned hours on Twitter and still pay the bills.

In other words, Twitter is for everyone - and we all use it in entirely different ways. So just because people in your company say there is a "right way" of using Twitter and just because your cousin tells you that you ought to share family photos using Twitter - don't believe them. Do what works for you and use Twitter the way you want to. That way it will work for your business or your family because you will be enjoying it. Much of the frustration about Twitter is because people feel forced to use it in particular ways. There is no right or wrong - unless you are a perfectionist of course..!

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At long last the poor people of Haiti are receiving international aid. It's taken almost a week for a significant response. Indeed, the UK Government initially promised aid which was about half the salary they agreed to pay the boss of the Royal Bank of Scotland. Millions of disadvantaged people were expected to share £6m, whereas Mr Hester got £10m to himself. But that's not the real issue. The real problem is that governments the world over were completely unaware of the true nature of this disaster - even though the rest of us knew.

 

When the news broke in the UK, the 24-hour news channels broadcast it around 45 minutes after the first quake hit Port-au-prince. In that first hour the seismologists who monitor earthquakes 24/7 had analysed the information they received and said, with one voice, that this was a "big one" with potential for a huge impact, simply because of where it was. An hour later the first pictures of the damage were shown. Where had this pictures come from? The country was without communication systems and without electricity.

Those pictures, broadcast to the world, had arrived via Twitter. People using laptops and satellite phone technology had started to let the world know the reality of the situation. Just half an hour or so later the first videos were arriving on YouTube and broadcasters such as CNN and Sky News were showing them. Anyone watching these channels would have known the seriousness of the situation. The Twitter stream for haiti also revealed the extent of the damage and the enormity of what was going on.

Yet the British Government slept safely in their beds, not surfacing for comment for many hours. Similarly, all around the world, our so-called "leaders" failed to respond rapidly. This is in spite of the knowledge about the situation that was widely available on Twitter, YouTube, Facebook and a plethora of forums. The people of Haiti were telling us exactly what had happened - yet for a couple of days the "international community" (whatever that is) twiddled its thumbs, it seems.

In reality, of course, they didn't do this. They were working in the background. In truth the governments of the world have been caught "behind the times". Nowadays news is spread within moments, right across the world, thanks to the likes of Twitter. In the past, we might not have known about this kind of disaster for several days anyway. By that time, the world's governments would have been able to get organised; their plans would have been in place and to the rest of us it would look like an "instant" response. We would have been proud of them. Even in the world of 24 hour news, much information was "old". After all, it was almost 24 hours before any TV crews arrived. As a result, without the presence of Twitter and YouTube we would have been none-the-wiser.

With Twitter, Facebook and YouTube we can now find out instantly the extent of any particular situation; the wool is no longer over our eyes. And that's the gap that Twitter has exposed. The world's governments were still working in the rules of the "old world", where diplomatic offices could report back before TV crews had arrived and then the leaders could have prepared their responses. In Haiti, that seems to be what has happened. The Government was apparently blissfully unaware of the information flowing around the world on Twitter and YouTube.

Clearly, for any future disaster they need to monitor such social networks constantly so they can respond appropriately and much more quickly. This time their slow response is largely borne out of the fact they relied on old-fashioned techniques. The world has moved on - governments clearly haven't.

But it also begs the question - have you moved on? Do you know what is going on in your industry or sector? Because you can bet your last farthing that it's being discussed right now on Twitter and Facebook. The situation being Tweeted right now about your business sector could have a direct impact on the future of your business or the potential you have for greater success. If you are not monitoring Twitter or Facebook, for instance, you are going to be in the same situation as the Government has been on Haiti - caught napping. That means there is a growing gap between businesses who monitor Twitter or Facebook or other social networks and those who do not.

The businesses that use social network information to monitor the news in their sector are the ones that can respond. The rest are using old-fashioned communications methods and may well be too late to take advantage of the news and information spread via the likes of Twitter. The horrors of Haiti have shown the chasm that exists in the communications departments of the world's Governments. There may come a time where your lack of use of Twitter or Facebook could expose a similar gap between you and your business sector.

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Most business people do not use Twitter; they can't see the point. But, shortly into the New Year, the point is going to hit them sharply between the eyes thanks to two business deals that Twitter has just signed with Google and Microsoft. If you are not using Twitter in 2010 your business will suffer - really suffer.

The new deals mean that not only has Twitter become profitable, but that real-time search on "topics of the moment" will feature Twitter above all else. To be noticed in search engine results, you will need to be Tweeting away.

In the past, all you needed to do to get noticed in search engines was to have a web site. Then you needed to have a website that was relevant and topical. After that you needed to have a website that  was updated regularly. In the past couple of years, if your website did not include regular articles, or a blog, getting noticed by the search engines was increasingly difficulty. Indeed, at a meeting two years ago I said that if the businesses in the room were not blogging, they would not be in business two years later. Last week, I met one of the people who have continued to blog on public relations since that very day. And guess what they told me? Of all the people who were in the room two years ago, only two are still in business - the only two who took up blogging seriously.

Now, it's time for another prediction: businesses who don't use Twitter in 2010 will be out of business by the time the London Olympics begin. That's because the tie-in between Twitter and Google and Microsoft's Bing mean that Tweets will now get high profile in search engine results. If your business is not Tweeting away, its profile will drop. No doubt, the famed Google algorithm will get tweaked to determine whether or not your site is represented in Twitter - if not, watch out.

Ten years ago, people did not see the point of bothering to get listed by search engines or to adapt their sites for higher rankings. Five years ago, many business people could not see the point of blogging. Now, many businesses can't see the point of Twittering away. Yet those businesses ten years ago who saw the point of search engine rankings or five years ago saw the point of blogging are thriving online. The same now is true for the businesses that Tweet.

Your company's chances of being clicked on in search engines come 2010 will be reduced - potentially dramatically - if you don't use Twitter. You can make a start by downloading my free guide on Twitter for business.

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